GOOGL

Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL)

Forecast dashboard - price, distributions, positions and the calls behind them.
Prices today · Chain · Sep 3, 09:50 ET · Positions · Sep 3, 08:16 ET · Voices · Sep 3, 09:18 ET · News · Sep 3, 09:45 ET · Filings · Sep 3, 09:18 ET · Street · Sep 3, 09:47 ET
Spot
$343.74
+2.0% today
1 week
+0.9%
vs $341
YTD
+10.0%
vs $313
IV30
28.5%
11th pct, 1y
To earnings
Not scheduled
Book P/L today
+$1,072

What moved the stock

Aug 3, 2026Alphabet rallied with the market as the Dow hit a record on eased Middle East tension, and Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it had poured $23 billion into the stock under new CEO Greg Abel.+4.9%
Jul 31, 2026Alphabet rose 6.7% with Amazon and Microsoft, which together added nearly $1.5 trillion in combined market value this week as strong cloud earnings eased AI capital-spending worries.+6.7%
Jul 23, 2026Alphabet reported Q2 2026 results after the close on 2026-07-22; the stock moved -7.1% the next session.-7.1%
Jul 16, 2026Alphabet fell 4.4% after reports that its Gemini 3.5 Pro model release had been delayed by several months, raising concerns it was losing ground to OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta.-4.4%
Jun 29, 2026Alphabet rallied with the broader market as Wall Street closed out its best first half in five years on easing US-Iran tensions.+4.8%
Earlier (13 more)
Aug 3, 2026Alphabet rallied with the market as the Dow hit a record on eased Middle East tension, and Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it had poured $23 billion into the stock under new CEO Greg Abel.+4.9%
Jul 31, 2026Alphabet rose 6.7% with Amazon and Microsoft, which together added nearly $1.5 trillion in combined market value this week as strong cloud earnings eased AI capital-spending worries.+6.7%
Jul 23, 2026Alphabet reported Q2 2026 results after the close on 2026-07-22; the stock moved -7.1% the next session.-7.1%
Jul 16, 2026Alphabet fell 4.4% after reports that its Gemini 3.5 Pro model release had been delayed by several months, raising concerns it was losing ground to OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta.-4.4%
Jun 29, 2026Alphabet rallied with the broader market as Wall Street closed out its best first half in five years on easing US-Iran tensions.+4.8%
Jun 22, 2026Alphabet had its worst day in over a year after a wave of high-profile AI departures, including Gemini co-lead Noam Shazeer and DeepMind's John Jumper, stoked competitive concerns.-5.0%
Apr 30, 2026Alphabet reported Q1 2026 results after the close on 2026-04-29; the stock moved +10.0% the next session.+10.0%
Apr 14, 2026Alphabet rose 3.6% with a broad market rally, the Nasdaq's tenth straight winning day, alongside gains in Amazon and Nvidia.+3.6%
Apr 8, 2026Alphabet extended its rebound, up 3.6% on the day, as tech stocks continued a relief rally on hopes for an end to the Iran conflict.+3.9%
Apr 1, 2026Alphabet gained as stocks extended their rally for a second day on hopes for an end to the Iran war.+3.4%
Mar 31, 2026Alphabet jumped as global markets rallied on hopes the Iran conflict was ending, unwinding part of the prior week's tech selloff.+5.1%
Mar 26, 2026Alphabet fell as the Nasdaq confirmed a correction, down more than 10% from its high, in a broad tech selloff tied to Middle East-driven market jitters.-3.4%
Mar 24, 2026Alphabet fell with Microsoft and other mega-cap tech names on renewed AI capital-spending concerns, even as the broader market rebounded on eased Middle East tensions.-3.9%
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Price forecasts, overlaid

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Outcome distributions by horizon

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Options market history

IV30
28.5%
11th pct, 1y
Snapshots
SnapshotSpotATM IV (nearest expiry)Expiries
2026-09-03$34428.2%19
2026-07-29$336-8
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My forecast

No locked forecast yet.

Scenarios and weights

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Voices

Ben Thompson Bullish
Google's AI bar is low -- it just needs Search not to die too fast.
Stratechery · Aug 18, 2026 · Full history
Quote and source
"Google just needs search to not die too quickly."

podcast

Brad Gerstner Neutral
You can never count Google out, Gerstner said, but flagged it has seen less AI traction lately.
Altimeter Capital · Jul 6, 2026 · Full history
Quote and source
You can never count Google out. They are the original pioneer here. They have plenty of compute. They have all the money in the world. I'm surprised that, frankly, they haven't seen more traction here as of late, but I think that they'll be in the hunt.

tv

Dylan Patel Bullish
Google funded its AI buildout by halting buybacks, unlike peers piling on debt.
SemiAnalysis · Aug 25, 2026 · Full history
Quote and source
Google funded its buildout by halting buybacks without much market disruption, contrasted with the debt-funded phase other hyperscalers are entering.

podcast

Gavin Baker Neutral
Google paid SpaceX ~$50B per gigawatt for compute, the richest hyperscaler rate Baker cited.
Atreides Management · Jun 11, 2026 · Full history
Quote and source
They just signed Anthropic at 22 to 23. They just signed Google at 50.

podcast

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Street consensus

Mean target $428 across 54 firms; weighted $469 across 28 tracked

$350$400$450$500Aug 4Aug 27Sep 3Weighted $469Mean $428$400$500Aug 4Aug 27Sep 3Weighted $469Mean $428
Street · Sep 3, 2026
Shaded band holds the street high to low range.
All firms
FirmTargetAs ofRatingTrack record
Pivotal Research$475Jul 23, 2026Buy+0.70
Loop Capital$490May 15, 2026Buy+0.49
KeyCorp$445Jul 10, 2026Overweight+0.32
Needham & Company LLC$450Jun 3, 2026Buy+0.29
BMO Capital Markets$465Jul 23, 2026Outperform+0.14
Wedbush$445Jul 23, 2026Outperform-0.12
UBS Group$379Jul 23, 2026Neutral-0.14
Morgan Stanley$400Jul 23, 2026Overweight-0.15
Wells Fargo & Company$411Jul 23, 2026Overweight-0.15
Oppenheimer$445May 15, 2026Outperform-0.21
Barclays$425Jul 23, 2026Overweight-0.23
Truist Financial$420Jul 23, 2026Buy-0.31
Mizuho$460May 6, 2026Outperform-0.33
Rosenblatt Securities$393Jul 23, 2026Neutral-0.37
Piper Sandler$395Jul 23, 2026Overweight-0.63
Arete Research$425May 18, 2026Buy-
Bank of America Securities$430Aug 11, 2026Buy-
Cantor Fitzgerald$420Jul 23, 2026Overweight-
Citizens JMP$515Jul 22, 2026Market Outperform-
DA Davidson$350Jul 23, 2026Neutral-
DBS Bank$460May 7, 2026--
Freedom Capital Markets$400Jul 23, 2026Buy-
HSBC$420Jun 2, 2026Buy-
Jefferies$445Aug 3, 2026Buy-
New Street Research$455Jun 5, 2026Buy-
Phillip Securities$425Jul 28, 2026Buy-
Roth Capital$440Jul 23, 2026Buy-
Royal Bank Of Canada$425Jul 23, 2026Outperform-
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Revenue by segment

Allocated0B50B100B2016201720182019202020212022202320242025YouTube 11.1BCloud 24.8BNetwork 7.3BOther 13.3BSearch 63.3BAllocated0B50B100B2016201720182019202020212022202320242025YouTube 11.1BCloud 24.8BNetwork 7.3BOther 13.3BSearch 63.3B
Filings · Sep 3, 09:18 ET
Hatched = allocated from annual, not directly disclosed.
Capex → depreciation bridge
$0B$50B$100B$150B$200B'2016'2017'2018'2019'2020'2021'2022'2023'2024'2025'2026D&A$0B$100B$200B'2016'2018'2020'2022'2024'2026D&A
Filings · Sep 3, 09:18 ET
EPS, street vs house
FYStreetHouse
2026$21-
2027$15$14
2028-$15
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Valuation history

P/E, forward 22.7x vs 10y median 26.3x; P/S 9.2x vs 10y median 6.7x

P/E, forward
20x30x40x50x60x20062016202610y median 26.3x22.7x now20x40x60x20062016202610y median 26.3x22.7x now
Prices today
P/S
5x10x20062016202610y median 6.7x9.2x now5x10x20062016202610y median 6.7x9.2x now
Prices today
EV / EBITDA

History unavailable.

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Strategy evaluations under forecasted conditions

StructureNet debitMax lossEVEV / $ at riskWin rate
Dec-27 Collar (100 sh, +285p/-440c)$33,036$4,536$2,6340.5859%
Dec-27 Call spread 335/405 (+20%)$2,648$2,648$2860.1145%
Dec-27 100 shares$33,712$33,712$2,4700.0756%
Dec-27 Deep ITM call 270 (-20%)$9,830$9,830-$174-0.0242%
Dec-27 Long call 335 (ATM)$6,330$6,330-$1,338-0.2131%
Dec-27 Put spread hedge 335/285 (-15%)$2,255$2,255-$684-0.3032%
Dec-27 Long call 370 (+10%)$4,850$4,850-$1,579-0.3324%
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My positions

17 legs, EV under House +34% of book by Dec 2028

Net delta
2,406
Max loss
-$451,128
Breakevens
$336.60
Payoff at expiry
-$500k+$0k+$500k$100$250$400$550$700Spot $344Breakeven $336.60+$0k$200$400$600Spot $344Breakeven $336.60
Positions · Sep 3, 08:16 ET

Max profit +$878,472 · Max loss -$451,128

All positions (17)
PositionQtyAvg costMarkP/L
GOOG1,543$212$335$189,359
GOOG Dec15'28 260 PUT10$23$25$2,445
GOOG Dec15'28 335 PUT-10$49$57-$7,430
GOOGL Dec15'28 260 PUT25$24$25$644
GOOGL Dec15'28 280 PUT5$28$31$1,569
GOOGL Dec15'28 300 CALL11$112$105-$8,745
GOOGL Dec15'28 300 PUT8$40$39-$485
GOOGL Dec15'28 340 PUT-25$56$58-$6,476
GOOGL Dec15'28 350 CALL10$89$81-$7,448
GOOGL Dec15'28 360 PUT-5$60$69-$4,513
GOOGL Dec15'28 400 CALL-1$71$63$764
GOOGL Dec15'28 500 CALL-10$44$38$5,876
GOOGL Dec15'28 600 CALL-18$32$24$15,806
GOOGL Jun17'27 360 PUT5$36$48$5,860
GOOGL Jun17'27 425 CALL-5$38$17$10,196
GOOGL Sep17'27 300 CALL8$76$74-$1,345
GOOGL Sep17'27 440 CALL-8$22$21$1,147
Portfolio EV under forecast, over time
-100%-50%0%Oct 3, 2026Dec 15, 2028Book 34%-100%0%Oct 3, 2026Dec 15, 2028Book 34%
Positions · Sep 3, 08:16 ET
GOOGGOOG Dec15'28 260 PUTGOOG Dec15'28 335 PUTGOOGL Dec15'28 260 PUTGOOGL Dec15'28 280 PUTGOOGL Dec15'28 300 CALLGOOGL Dec15'28 300 PUTGOOGL Dec15'28 340 PUTGOOGL Dec15'28 350 CALLGOOGL Dec15'28 360 PUTGOOGL Dec15'28 400 CALLGOOGL Dec15'28 500 CALLGOOGL Dec15'28 600 CALLGOOGL Jun17'27 360 PUTGOOGL Jun17'27 425 CALLGOOGL Sep17'27 300 CALLGOOGL Sep17'27 440 CALL
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Track record and journal

OwnerNHit rateMAE %
Mine0--
House0--
Street41530%20.5%

Journal

  • Aug 27, 2026 · forecast
    Logged 12-month bull and bear cases (fc_0525), no point target. Bull: AI demand continues with supply constrained, Google grows capacity, Search holds, maybe Gemini 4 lands. Bear: AI demand contracts a bit; the interesting case is long-running agents cutting GPU demand per task, favoring cost per watt over latency.
  • Aug 27, 2026 · note
    House forecast rebuilt two-sided: 12-month median 342, P(below spot) 49 percent, Dec 2028 median 383. Capacity-anchored cloud revenue is the load-bearing assumption.
  • Aug 31, 2026 · trade
    Closed 4x Jan-28 260 calls; opened 8x Sep-27 300/440 call spread.
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