Gavin Baker
Jun 11, 2026 Neutral
Google paid SpaceX ~$50B per gigawatt for compute, the richest hyperscaler rate Baker cited.
They just signed Anthropic at 22 to 23. They just signed Google at 50.
12 month horizon
May 20, 2026 Bearish
Google lost the Pareto-frontier lead on intelligence-per-cost as conservative TPU v8 choices ceded ground.
Google dominated the Pareto frontier (intelligence vs. cost) 9 months ago; now it's dominated by Anthropic and OpenAI, with Grok 4.3 also on the frontier ... and Gemini 3.1 hanging on, possibly subsidized out of pride. This is a consequence of Google losing their per-cost-token leadership as a result of very conservative TPU v8 design decisions to try to take share back from Broadcom and Nvidia, while others kept making aggressive choices.
12 month horizon
May 12, 2026 Bearish
Google made very conservative TPU v8 design choices while Nvidia and Trainium went aggressive.
Google, for a lot of reasons, made very conservative design choices with TPU v8. Nvidia and Trainium made very aggressive design choices ... I would never bet against Google, I would never bet against Broadcom. But I do think Trainium is super underestimated right now.
12 month horizon
Dec 9, 2025 Bullish
Google's TPU cost edge let it 'suck the economic oxygen' from the AI ecosystem, but Baker called it temporary.
suck the economic oxygen out of the AI ecosystem
6 month horizon
Oct 30, 2025 Bullish
Nvidia's biggest competitor is Google, whose Gemini traffic may already top OpenAI's, running on TPUs.
Nvidia's biggest competitor, it's not AMD, it's not Broadcom, it's certainly not Marvell, it's not Intel, it's Google ... I suspect on an actual traffic basis, Google is bigger than OpenAI, Anthropic, anyone today, and that business is going to run on TPUs.
12 month horizon
Oct 30, 2025 Bullish
Google's 5-billion-user Chrome moat makes it hard to bet against in the AI-browser fight.
there's something called Chrome that has 5 billion users, and if you're Google, you can just go look at what happened with Google Buzz, they are very cautious ... I do think it's tough to bet against the companies with large existing user bases today.
12 month horizon
Oct 22, 2025 Bullish
Google and xAI have the most unique proprietary data among AI labs, a durable post-reasoning edge.
to varying degrees, they all have with probably Google and XAI having the most unique data.
12 month horizon
Oct 22, 2025 Bullish
Google was able to attract the AI talent needed to make its scale a sustaining, not just disruptive, edge.
the core ingredients to success are compute and data. And these companies have the most compute and the most data ... Google was able to do that.
12 month horizon